Wants vs. Beliefs

A funny thing about the human mind is we tend to believe what we want to believe. We are prone to allowing what we want to have happen distort our reasoning on how likely it is to happen.

My recent post on the future of UI will be boring has disappointed some. They think I want the future to boring because I predict it will be so.

This is wrong. I’d love new and better things as much as anyone.

However, having studied the history of change and progress I know how many factors are involved for change of this kind to happen, and how many of those factors have nothing to do with how much better a particular new idea is. My prediction is based on what I think will happen, independent of whether I want it to happen or not.

If you strip away what you want or don’t want for a moment, your odds of seeing things clearly go up. I’m not saying I’m right about the future, only that there is a distinction in my mind between things I want to have happen and I things I think will happen. It’s a very useful distinction to be able to make.

It should be possible to:

Believe in something you hope doesn’t happen (e.g. death)
Want something even if it’s improbable (developing superpowers as you age)
Accept that things happen regardless of whether you believe in them or not
Work for something you want despite the odds (changing the world for the better)